In the high growth scenario import and export in 2024 is forecast to reach 790 billion USD


Online export: Catch waves to break throughOnline export: Catch waves to break through
In the high growth scenario, import and export in 2024 is forecast to reach 790 billion USD
Announcement ceremony of Vietnam Economic and Trade Annual Report 2023. Photo: HD

Customs policy reform helps improve import-export efficiency

At the Annual Report of Vietnam Economy and Trade 2023: “Digital transformation with sustainable development” published by Trade University on April 2, experts pointed out positive and negative trends to Vietnam’s trade this year.

Accordingly, on the positive side of the world economy, the US growth forecast is likely to continue to be stronger than expected as inflationary pressures decrease and loosened monetary policy will boost global activity. However, geopolitical risks can have a negative global impact through commodity and financial markets, trade and confidence.

For Vietnam, representing the report compilation group, Associate Professor, Dr. Phan The Cong, Dean of the Faculty of Economics, said that Vietnam has many opportunities and advantages in trade activities when participating in many free trade agreements (FTAs), especially new generation FTAs. Furthermore, positive signals from foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam are expected to play an important role in trade activities…

In addition, this person also emphasized that reforms in trade and customs policies have helped improve the efficiency of import-export management, simplify administrative procedures, and reduce costs and time for businesses. Furthermore, Vietnam has labor costs, abundant and quality human resources, as well as a favorable geographical location for importing and exporting goods with major markets such as China, the US, the EU, ASEAN, and Japan, Korea,…

However, in 2024, Vietnam’s trade situation is still considered to be relatively difficult when the economic recovery of Vietnam’s partner countries is slower than initially expected. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s economy is highly open, so it is greatly affected by international developments, leading to difficulties for industries with large export turnover such as textiles, wood, electronics…

Along with that are internal difficulties such as the quality of labor has not improved, the growth of the processing and manufacturing industry tends to slow down, the application of high technology is limited… In particular, Vietnam Participating in many FTAs with higher requirements must fully implement international commitments, including tariffs, market opening, intellectual property… so no longer enjoy special incentives for the transition period as before.

From the above issues, the report has proposed 3 forecast scenarios for total import-export turnover in 2024, but all have high growth rates and maintain a trade surplus of 25-27 billion USD.

In the high growth scenario, import and export in 2024 is forecast to reach 790 billion USD
Illustration from the report: H.D

According to data just announced by the General Statistics Office, in the first quarter of 2024, the total import-export turnover of goods reached 178.04 billion USD, an increase of 15.5% over the same period last year. Thus, import-export figures in the first quarter of the new year reached about 22.5% compared to the whole year expectation in the high growth scenario.

6 policy groups to develop import and export

So according to experts, to achieve the highest goal for import-export growth, it is necessary to implement many policies specifically divided into each field and each issue from the market to business activities…

Associate Professor, Dr. Phan The Cong said that the report pointed out 6 policy groups for import-export development, specifically including policy groups on: export market development; sustainable development of export goods sources; trade promotion, export promotion; supply chain development; develop commercial infrastructure and logistics services to serve foreign trade activities; support import-export enterprises; import management.

In particular, related to the infrastructure policy group, the report of Thuongmai University recommends that the Government needs to increase public investment in infrastructure development projects to serve export activities.

These include: building, expanding and upgrading roads, railways, seaports and airports to increase the ability to transport goods and services; Invest in warehouse infrastructure, distribution centers and logistics management systems to improve the transportation and storage of goods; Improve infrastructure and services at seaports and border gates to enhance cargo handling capacity and support import-export activities…

In particular, it is necessary to improve customs and clearance processes, create special logistics zones to develop logistics support services; promoting digital transformation, implementing logistics services on digital platforms to improve service quality and performance…

To support import-export enterprises, according to experts, it is necessary to implement financial support policies to improve capacity; At the same time, develop and implement policies to support export enterprises in overcoming technical barriers and trade defense measures, promoting exports…


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