Positive economic outlook in 2024


Dr. Le Duy Binh, CEO of Vietnam Economica gives an interview.
Dr. Le Duy Binh, CEO of Vietnam Economica

Vietnam’s economic growth in 2023 is over 5%. In your opinion, which economic sectors in Vietnam have achieved outstanding achievements in the past year?

The figure of 5% itself is an outstanding achievement for the Vietnamese economy in 2023 in the context that the global economy has not yet fully recovered. When compared with many other economies in the ASEAN region as well as East Asia, this is an encouraging growth rate, with many areas having positive points.

First of all, our macroeconomic stability continues to be maintained. Indicators of inflation, exchange rate and budget deficit show that we are well controlling the macroeconomic situation. This is a very important bright spot, the foundation of Vietnam’s stable growth in 2023 and for the following years.

In addition, total retail sales and consumer service revenue will continue to increase in 2023 with an increase of about 99%. This shows that the domestic market is gradually becoming an important driving force to promote economic growth. Along with that, Government spending continues to increase, making an important contribution to increasing the economy’s aggregate demand and economic growth. Import and export also continued to recover in the last months of the year.

The confidence of domestic and foreign investors continues to be maintained with a record number of newly established businesses and re-entering the market, and foreign direct investment capital continues to increase. The confidence of domestic and foreign investors in the economy continues to be strengthened. These are special highlights of 2023.

In your opinion, what are the drivers of Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024?

In 2024, we are looking forward to the very important growth drivers from before.

First of all is the export motivation. We expect that in 2024 exports will recover stronger when there is support and confidence in the recovery of the global economy, because we have seen signs of recovery in the economy of US, China and ASEAN countries, Japan, Korea… Export, one of the important driving forces of the economy, has not been able to promote its strengths in 2023. But this year’s global economic context could be better, which is the basis to believe that exports will recover stronger in 2024.

Besides, we also expect that other driving forces such as private investment from the domestic business sector, foreign investment, and public investment will continue to be promoted this year. Along with domestic consumption, these are traditional driving forces from the past up to now.

In particular, we can also expect new growth drivers coming from the digital economy, innovation, green economy, and circular economy. In addition, the huge potential of many localities that have not been fully exploited before will be promoted thanks to newer, more modern infrastructure to connect this area to the economy, shortening distance to domestic and global markets. New growth drivers are expected to begin to develop more strongly in 2024, giving wings to the economy in addition to traditional growth drivers.

The improvement in foreign direct investment into Vietnam in the second half of 2023 has significantly contributed to the economic recovery. Can the momentum from foreign investment continue into 2024, sir?

Foreign investors’ confidence in Vietnam’s economy continues to be strengthened and has continued to increase greatly in recent times. This is proven by very important investment projects in high technology, green growth, and green energy to serve the energy transition process.

That shows that foreign investors have great confidence in the Vietnamese economy. For example, the latest Business Confidence Index (BCI) of the European Business Association in Vietnam in the fourth quarter of 2023 showed signs of positive improvement. Japanese investors in Japan Trade Promotion Organization surveys also always rate Vietnam as one of the most attractive economies for investment. Clearly, foreign investors’ confidence in the Vietnamese economy is still strongly maintained.

Besides, the potential of Vietnam’s economy shows that this is a place worth investing money in, because Vietnam has a stable and improving business environment. In particular, the profitability of foreign investors’ projects when investing in Vietnam is very attractive.

Observations show that there are currently many foreign investors watching Vietnam’s economic transformation and are developing many ambitious projects in the fields of high technology, energy and other fields on digital economy and green economy. We expect these projects will soon be registered and implemented in Vietnam and expect foreign investment capital will continue to be poured into Vietnam more strongly in the near future.

The economic growth target in 2024 is from 6 to 6.5%. In your opinion, is this goal feasible?

This is a very challenging goal compared to the results we will achieve in 2023. But challenging does not mean unfeasible. With the efforts of the National Assembly, the Government, ministries, branches and localities, especially the efforts of businesses and each citizen, we will promote the strengths of the economy.

We have an economy of more than 100 million consumers, in which Government spending is getting stronger and stronger. In addition, the institutional environment has been strengthened. The health of the banking and financial system has also improved and is much more resilient than before.

We can be proud to have established a solid position in the eyes of foreign investors as a friendly, trustworthy partner and a potential investment location that foreign investors always consider in business problems, or when considering where to invest. These are very important foundations.

But the most important thing is that we will turn these potential platforms into reality. Accordingly, it is necessary for the Government’s decisions and very strong actions from Government agencies, ministries, branches and localities to maximize the market potential, the internal resources of the economy, and the potential of the economy infrastructure, resources, and the potential of new growth drivers such as the digital economy and green economy to become a reality. If we can take advantage of these opportunities and potentials, we will certainly achieve the growth goals we have set.

Thank you Sir!


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