Vietnamese dong notes. Investors make decisions on different investment channels. (Photo: VNA)
Entering 2023, investors are choosing investment channels that bring in high profitability amid the current financial market where there are many unprecedented risks.
According to Huynh Anh Tuan, General Director of Dong A Bank Securities Company (DAS), saving accounts are still the most attractive investment channel, at least until the end of the first quarter of 2023.
With gross domestic product (GDP) growth of more than 8%, the country’s consumer price index (CPI) under control below 4% in 2022, and bank deposit interest rates reaching 12%, depositors still enjoy positive real interest, he said.
In 2023, although macroeconomic conditions are forecast to see many challenges, GDP is forecast to still grow positively, reaching 6.5% and an inflation target below 4.5%.
Although commercial banks recently pledged to reduce the deposit interest rate to below 9.5% per year, the roadmap for reducing interest rates is likely to require more time, especially when the liquidity of some small banks is still at a low level. Therefore, at this time, bank deposit is the most attractive investment channel.
Tuan said through the third quarter of 2023, deposit interest rates are expected to cool down. At that time, securities are likely to become more attractive investment channels for investors. But at the present time, the stock market still sees many unpredictable risk factors, but there are still some industries that are forecast to prosper again.
Phan Dung Khanh, investment consulting director of Maybank Investment Bank, also said that banking deposit is still the best investment channel in the first half of 2023. In the second half of 2023, when the stock market becomes more stable with a safer buying zone, inpidual cash flows can come back in, making the market more active.
Dinh The Hien, a financial expert, predicts that the stock market is likely to prosper in 2023, because stock prices are hitting lows. When financial and banking markets are stable and interest rates tend to decrease, the stock market is expected to recover strongly.
In 2022, Vietnam’s stock market was one of the strongest falling markets in the world, as the VN-Index fell more than 34% compared to the beginning of 2022. Experts said that although the stock market still sees many unpredictable risks and investor sentiment is still weak, the stock market still has some main supportive points.
Vietnam’s economic growth is forecast to remain at a high level compared to the world average, while well-controlled inflation will be a bright spot to attract foreign investment flows. Difficulties in cash flow liquidity in the economy are also being focused on by the Government and related ministries and sectors.
However, experts also say that investors need to avoid speculative stocks, and choose the right stocks of businesses with solid financial foundations, stable operation and little influence of short-term fluctuations.
Contrary to the positive trend of savings and securities, investment channels in gold, foreign currency, bonds, and real estate are forecast to be less positive.
According to Huynh Anh Tuan, since Decree No 24/2012/ND-CP dated April 3, 2012 of the Government (Decree 24) and Circular No 16/2012/TT-NHNN dated May 25, 2012 of the State Bank on the management of gold business came into effect, the domestic gold market prices struggled to keep pace with the world market. The gold investment channel is also less attractive to domestic investors.
Can Van Luc, a financial expert, also said that with the current gold market, short-term investment can be quite risky, because the domestic and international gold prices are not connected. However, investing in gold as a long-term accumulation channel is still acceptable.
Foreign currency investment, especially the US dollar, is also considered unattractive, as the USD/VND exchange rate has increased sharply in 2022 and is not expected to have many strong changes in 2023.
According to experts of MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS), foreign exchange pressure may return but it is unlikely to be as negative as in 2022. As planned, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will still increase rates in 2023, but the pressure will be lighter as the US dollar has levelled off against most other currencies, including the Vietnamese dong.
MBS’s analysts said that in 2023, the Vietnamese dong is expected to depreciate by about 2% in the context that the Fed will stop raising interest rates after March 2023.
As for real estate, analysts predict that the market is still quiet and struggle to recover in 2023.
According to Can Van Luc, for the real estate channel, some segments are currently facing difficulties such as resort real estate and tourism in the context that the cash flow for investment loans is being squeezed. However, residential real estate in some areas benefiting from infrastructure still has a positive outlook.
Therefore, investors need to identify and prioritise safe-haven investment channels, such as potential real estate segments like houses, industrial park real estate, and land plots in areas with synchronous infrastructure, full legal conditions and reputable and professional investors.
In the context that the financial market still sees many unpredictable variables, experts say that investors should persify investment channels, carefully make investment and selling decisions, and avoid false rumours./.