VCN – The growth pressure in the fourth quarter of 2021 is high because this is the quarter that “pulls” the growth of the whole economy. In the last months of the year, it is necessary to put the goal of people’s safety first because this is a “crucial” factor to be able to stabilize the macroeconomy and maintain production at a basic level.
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| When disease prevention and control is effective, all activities will return to normal, production enterprises can feel secure in their production and business activities, contributing to economic growth. Photo: Le Huong. |
The economy in the third quarter of 2021 unexpectedly fell deeper than forecast, along with that GDP growth increased only 1.42% in the first nine months of the year, which increased pressure on growth in the last quarter of 2021. Regarding negative growth in the third quarter of 2021, economist Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan, University of Bristol (UK), said that negative GDP growth was what most economic observers predicted. But the 6.17% drop was unexpected. This puts great pressure on growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 because this is the quarter that “pulls” the growth of the whole economy. However, provinces have not had a clear plan on reopening, they still focus on manufacturing enterprises, while service businesses remain still.
Sharing the same view, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang, National Economics University, said that the negative growth rate of 6.17% was an unexpected “shock”, changing the perception of growth for the whole year. The solutions to stop the decline have not been as expected, especially the solutions to promote vaccination.
Assessing the macroeconomic situation in the fourth quarter, the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) said that Vietnam’s economic growth in the last months of the year depends heavily on disease inspection and control. Currently, inflation is controlled at a low level, the impact of price increase and world inflation on economic growth and inflation is not high.
Many public services in the country are being supported by the state such as tuition fees, electricity and water bills to reduce difficulties for people. In addition, consumption is on a downward trend due to limited supply of goods and lower income of people. Therefore, the consumer price index in the fourth quarter of 2021 is likely to remain at a low level, the average consumer price index in 2021 is forecast to reach about 2.5-2.8%.
The “core” factor
In order to achieve the highest growth, besides solutions to remove difficulties for the business community and stimulate domestic consumption, according to many experts, disease prevention and control still needs to be a top priority.
When disease prevention and control is effective, all activities will return to normal, production enterprises can rest assured in production and business activities, contributing to economic growth. Therefore, new service businesses can quickly return to operation and enter the market.
According to NCIF, in the last months of 2021, it is necessary to put the goal of people’s safety first because this is a “critical” factor to be able to stabilize the macro and maintain production at a basic level. Concentrating all resources on Covid-19 prevention and control, focusing on implementing the vaccine strategy, mobilizing, distributing and effectively using the Vaccine Fund, speeding up the process of purchasing and vaccination.
In addition, it is necessary to actively negotiate and recognize vaccination results with other countries, especially important partners of Vietnam.
NCIF believes that it is necessary to prepare to bring the economy and people’s lives back to integrate with production after social distancing and the pandemic.
Currently, production supply and consumption chains are facing obstacles, while people’s psychology after the damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is still not stable. The resilience of both businesses and people has reached a limit, this requires encouragement from the Government, helping and supporting businesses and people to overcome difficulties and improve confidence, investment and consumption, bringing the economy back to life.
At the same time, promote import and export, effectively implement the CPTPP and EVFTA. Prioritizing export promotion activities and export markets to recover after the pandemic; while taking full advantage of the FTAs that Vietnam has signed.
By Xuan Thao/Quynh Lan