With the global food price index recently reaching its highest point, there is a positive outlook ahead for rice exporters in Asia, including Vietnam, moving forward, according to industry insiders.
In its August report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its global rice production forecast for the 2022 – 2023 crop to 512.4 million tonnes, down 2.3 million tonnes from its original forecast and 1.2 million tonnes compared to the previous crop. However, it raised projections for global rice consumption in the 2022 – 2023 crop, up more than 2 million tonnes compared to the previous crop.
This factor is anticipated to have a positive impact on the rice market in the near future, especially when Vietnamese rice prices are offered at their lowest level for nearly a year.
Nguyen Van Hieu, export director of Loc Troi Group, forecast that rice exports in the remaining months of the year would continue to rise thanks to high demand from countries such as the Philippines, China, and the EU.
In China for instance, Hieu said, despite the impact of its zero-COVID policy, the demand for glutinous rice is anticipated to increase during public holidays and at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a shortage of wheat and escalating food prices in the EU market.
Currently, European and South American countries are in the midst of experiencing a drought that has made agricultural production difficult. In order to make up for this shortfall, European countries are likely to purchase rice from Vietnam and other rice producers, Hieu said.
Sharing this viewpoint, Dr. Nguyen Dang Nghia, director of the Southern Center for Soil, Fertilizer and Environmental Research, anticipated that global demand for rice in the remaining months of the year would continue to increase considerably.
However, localities and businesses are required to encourage farmers to organise production in an efficient manner to ensure the interests of all stakeholders, Nghia noted.